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6 Startling Contrasts: Turkey’s Military Might Versus A Weakening Democracy

European Leaders Confront a Dilemma: The Arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, U.S. Defense Security Lapses, and Dubious Arms Deals Highlight Turkey’s Decline Since the 2013 Gezi Park Protests and 2016 Failed Coup—Forcing a Choice Between Immediate Strategic Gains and Enduring Democratic Values.

April 2, 2025

Summary

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Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest and a series of domestic clampdowns demonstrate Turkey’s worsening authoritarianism.
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Turkey’s foreign policy is a puzzle—balancing close relations with Russia while keeping its NATO membership leaves Europe uncertain.
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Erosion of the rule of law has turned EU–Turkey high-stakes negotiations into technical, detail-oriented bargains.
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Despite the erosion of its democracy, Turkey supplies essential military hardware, maintains a formidable army, and offers key logistical advantages.
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European leaders are carefully considering a plan that links political reforms, updated visa and customs regulations, and closer defense integration to protecting shared values without compromising security.

For years, European leaders have grappled with a hard truth: Turkey's military strength is achieved by sacrificing democratic principles. The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on corruption charges, security lapses at U.S. defense sites, and a disappointing coalition meeting on Ukraine all underscore this stark contradiction. As the U.S. adjusts its strategy in the region, Turkey remains both a crucial asset and a potential liability.

A Harsh Realism

Turkey's internal decline isn't new. Since the 2013 Gezi Park protests and the failed coup attempt in 2016—which Erdoğan described as a 'gift from God,' implying it allowed him to consolidate power—the government has steadily eroded democratic freedoms. Thousands have been detained, independent media and civil society have come under intense pressure, and political critics find themselves pushed to the margins. Protests are suppressed, opposition voices on social media are silenced, and politically motivated trials often seem more about consolidating power than about true justice.

This internal decline has tarnished Turkey's reputation abroad. Once seen as a link between East and West, its relationship with Europe is now mired in fine print and narrowly focused negotiations. In exchange for over €9 billion in migration accords, the EU has reduced what could be substantial democratic reforms to minor technical details. Critics worry that deeper military ties—whether through arms deals or troop deployments—could undermine the West's long-held commitment to the rule of law.

The Strategic Balancing Act

There's no denying Turkey's military strength. As a NATO member with Europe's second-largest army, its thriving defense industry covers everything from artillery and vehicles to cutting-edge drones and naval vessels. Turkish firms are even ready to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine, extending their operational reach across the Black Sea and into Europe.

Yet, Turkey's balancing act is far from simple. While it officially backs Western security, its purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems casts serious doubt on its loyalties. Economic and military ties with Russia—ranging from oil exports and the TurkStream pipeline to agricultural trade—help ease the financial strains linked to Ukraine, but they also undermine European security. Control over the key Turkish Straits, as set by the 1936 Montreux Convention, further complicates matters, rousing concerns among nearby Bulgaria, Romania, and other nations about safe Black Sea navigation.

Chasing “Strategic Autonomy”

President Erdoğan has long pushed for an independent Turkey, increasingly leaning on partnerships with Russia and China instead of traditional Western alliances. His vision of a “Century of Türkiye” is driving major investments in local defense production, from innovative drones to fighter jets like the KAAN. Yet this drive for independence comes at a high price. Strengthening ties with non-Western powers deepens Turkey’s isolation from European democratic principles, and many European experts insist on a robust, mutual commitment to political reform and adherence to European Court of Human Rights rulings. Skepticism remains whether Ankara can or will meet these demands.

Europe’s Tough Choice

As the transatlantic order reshapes with the United States rethinking its global commitments, Europe now finds itself in a bind. Turkey's strong industrial sector and readiness to back both NATO and the EU in times of crisis are undeniable. However, its steady drift toward authoritarianism and its increasingly cozy ties with Russia raise serious concerns about the long-term sustainability of these relationships.

Relying on Turkish military might while overlooking its erosion of democracy sends a troubling message: immediate security needs are taking precedence over long-endured democratic values. European leaders now face a critical decision—whether to prioritize short-term military benefits or to enforce alliances built on common democratic principles.

One proposal on the table is a comprehensive reform package aimed at steering Turkey back onto a democratic path. This plan calls for renewed political commitments in line with NATO’s founding ideals, strict adherence to European Court of Human Rights decisions, fresh negotiations over visas, modernization of the EU–Turkey Customs Union, and careful oversight of Turkish arms deals, especially those impacting strategic regions like Central Europe and the Black Sea.

Even if a sweeping overhaul isn’t achieved, some EU nations might still secure Turkish-made arms through individual deals. However, such piecemeal agreements risk appearing as tacit approval of Turkey’s current governance, potentially allowing both Moscow and Washington to play upon European divisions.

In Conclusion

Turkey is a study in contrasts. Its potent defense industry and strategic location offer Europe significant advantages at a time when traditional transatlantic support is waning. But its persistent slide into authoritarianism and ambiguous ties with Russia raise profound questions about the democratic values that have long underpinned Western society.

Today's geopolitical landscape forces Europe to strike a balance between urgent security needs and the enduring pursuit of democratic ideals. This isn’t just about bridging military gaps with Turkish equipment—it’s about forging alliances that embody both strength and shared values. European leaders face a clear challenge: reap the benefits of Turkey’s undeniable assets without compromising the rule of law, or risk undermining the very foundations of Western democracy.