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environment

China’s Renewable Boom vs. Coal’s Grip: 1,206 GW of Green Power Amid a 3% Emissions Rise

In 2023, China celebrated record growth in wind and solar energy—with capacity reaching 1,206 GW by July 2024—yet carbon emissions edged up to 14.9 GtCO₂e as post-COVID reliance on fossil fuels and the construction of over 100 GW of new coal plants underscored a precarious energy transition.

April 2, 2025

Summary

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China's emissions reached a record high in 2023 as the post-pandemic rebound fueled a surge in fossil fuel use.
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Unprecedented renewable capacity: Wind and solar installations surpassed 1,200 gigawatts six years ahead of schedule.
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Despite a sharp decline in coal power permits, China is actively building new coal plants, ensuring fossil fuels remain a key part of its energy strategy.
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Forecasts suggest that while peaks might occur before 2025, emissions will remain well above the levels required for significant decarbonization this decade.
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China’s climate policies and targets remain 'woefully inadequate' against the real demands for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

China’s renewable energy surge presents a stark contrast. On the one hand, expansive wind and solar installations promise a greener future; on the other, a persistent reliance on coal undermines this progress. In 2023, while the nation celebrated unprecedented growth in renewables, carbon emissions nonetheless edged up by 3% and reached 14.9 GtCO₂e (excluding land-use change and forestry impacts), driven by a post-COVID recovery heavily reliant on fossil fuels. The impressive spread of solar arrays and wind farms does little to alleviate the ongoing dependence on coal.

Renewable Milestones and Rapid Deployment

By July 2024, China’s wind and solar capacity had surged to 1,206 GW, significantly exceeding targets set only a few years ago, with forecasts suggesting it could reach 1,310 GW by year’s end. Official statistics indicate that non-fossil sources now dominate on paper; however, current regulations have yet to dislodge the deeply entrenched influence of fossil fuels.

The Fossil Fuel Dilemma: Coal’s Unyielding Grip

Green permits decreased sharply by 83% in the first half of 2024. Yet, in a seemingly paradoxical trend, new coal plant construction increased by more than 100 GW between 2022 and 2023. Although coal’s share of power generation dipped from 60% in May 2023 to 53% in May 2024, overall emissions have shown little sign of declining. With expected economic growth of around 5% through 2024-25, China’s ongoing reliance on fossil fuels casts serious doubt on the prospect of achieving an 18% reduction in carbon intensity by 2025 relative to 2020.

Emission Projections Miss the Target

Some analysts suggest that emissions may have started to stabilize after the 2023 peak. Still, Beijing’s approach—where environmental targets are closely linked to economic growth—might result in 2030 emissions that are 0.5% to 1.6% higher than earlier forecasts, totaling between 13.8 and 14.6 gigatonnes. Even with a determined push for renewables alongside increasing coal reliance, any reduction in emissions by 2030 is expected to be a modest 5%, or roughly a 750 MtCO₂ cut.

Macroeconomic Impacts and Extreme Weather Challenges

China faces not only energy challenges but also severe economic impacts from extreme weather events. Summer 2024 brought devastating floods to provinces like Guangdong, Henan, and Hunan, underscoring the urgent need for resilient energy strategies and robust infrastructure that can support economic growth without compromising energy security.

Strategic Recommendations for a Decarbonised Future

If Beijing is to reverse its emissions trend, significant policy changes are necessary. Reducing dependence on fossil fuels is essential—even if it requires rebalancing economic and energy security priorities. With renewables accounting for 38% of global capacity and China’s energy demand projected to grow nearly 9% by 2030, it is critical to shift from relative benchmarks to establishing absolute, economy-wide emissions peaks. Market-based measures, including emissions trading schemes with minimal regulatory interference and streamlined permitting processes for high-emitting sectors like cement, steel, and non-ferrous metals, could drive meaningful progress.

Balancing Energy Security and Climate Ambitions

China’s steadfast commitment to energy security reveals a complex truth. Despite an impressive record in expanding green capacity, the nation’s often publicly celebrated reliance on coal underscores a profound disconnect in its energy narrative. Even as new permits for coal projects have been curtailed, the legacy of decades-old infrastructure ensures coal remains a significant factor in emissions.

The International Imperative

China’s energy policies send ripples across the global stage. With roughly one-third of the world’s carbon emissions linked to its activities, every move by the CCP is met with intense scrutiny and skepticism. While investments in renewables, electric vehicles, and clean technologies deserve recognition, the overall pace of decarbonisation remains too sluggish. If China is truly committed to the 1.5°C target, it must move beyond greenwashing tactics and embrace economically sound policies that protect its energy independence.

China’s energy strategy is a high-stakes balancing act, weighing ambitious renewable targets against the enduring grip of coal. The world watches as the CCP navigates this crucial turnaround, with outcomes poised to leave a lasting impact on domestic policies and the global climate legacy.