Asteroid 2024 YR4 first garnered attention on December 27, 2024, at Chile’s ATLAS facility in RĂo Hurtado. With a size estimated between 40 and 100 meters, early reports even mentioned a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in December 2032. However, thanks to careful follow-up and improved computer models, those concerns have been allayed—Earth is safe.
Following the initial alert, ESA’s Planetary Defence Office coordinated observations from worldwide observatories. Detailed measurements now show that while 2024 YR4 will glide past Earth, there remains about a 2% chance it might impact the Moon. This possibility, although remote, presents a unique opportunity for scientists to observe lunar crater formation firsthand.
A significant breakthrough occurred when NASA promptly arranged emergency observation time on the James Webb Space Telescope. During an intensive five-hour session in March, the JWST gathered continuous data that confirmed the asteroid’s 20-minute rotation period and refined its size to approximately 60 meters. By converting brightness into mid-infrared readings, researchers gained a clear picture of the asteroid’s rocky composition, bypassing the limitations of visible light.
ESA is also set to continue further investigations using some of the world’s most powerful telescopes, including ESO’s Very Large Telescope in Chile. By combining data from space-based and terrestrial sources, scientists aim to reduce any remaining uncertainties in the asteroid’s orbit, even as it gradually fades from view until its next pass in 2028.
There’s been considerable discussion about the need for international collaboration. While pooling resources from entities like the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group certainly has its benefits, it’s also worth questioning if such broad cooperation always results in the desired efficiency. Even as experts monitor 2024 YR4 and consider deflection strategies, a closer look at the costs and bureaucratic challenges is important.
On the technological front, innovative synthetic tracking techniques powered by NVIDIA GPUs are proving highly effective. This private-sector solution has already detected asteroids as small as 10 meters, substantially expanding our catalog of near-Earth objects and enhancing our preparedness for future threats.
Although 2024 YR4 no longer poses a risk to Earth, the slight 2% chance of a lunar impact creates a remarkable research opportunity. A collision on the Moon could allow scientists to study crater formation and asteroid material in real-time, enriching our understanding of celestial dynamics.
The 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst in Russia—which injured over 1,500 people and shattered thousands of windows—serves as a stark reminder of why constant vigilance is necessary. While the international efforts led by ESA, NASA, and their partners are commendable, they also underline the need to remain cautious. Continued reassessment and greater investment in detection programs are essential to protecting our planet, especially as we balance the benefits of cooperation with the potential pitfalls of excessive bureaucracy.